CLARITY Act passage odds drop to record 27% as Senate stalls

The legislative window for the bill is rapidly closing. While industry advocates pushed for a procedural vote to gauge support before the August 8 break, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has opted to focus on other legislative priorities. This delay has prompted Galaxy Digital to downgrade its own passage estimate to 30%, reflecting the growing skepticism among institutional observers.

Negotiations remain stalled over critical components, most notably ethics restrictions for elected officials. Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are currently finalizing a bipartisan counteroffer intended for the White House, which may shift enforcement authority for ethics provisions to state attorneys general. Beyond the ethics debate, disagreements persist regarding stablecoin yield-bearing products, with banking groups lobbying for tighter restrictions that crypto firms argue would stifle consumer choice.

Despite the current impasse, proponents including Rep. Mike Haridopolos and various Wall Street firms maintain that a clear regulatory framework is essential to keep investment within the United States. SEC Chair Paul Atkins noted that while the agency is prepared to establish rules through its own authority if Congress fails to act, such measures lack the durability of formal legislation. For now, the bill’s future hinges on the reception of the pending ethics proposal, though the compressed Senate calendar makes immediate progress increasingly unlikely.