OPEC Shifts Focus to India as Global Oil Demand Forecasts Climb

The organization’s latest forecast argues that the focus on energy transitions in Europe, California, and China obscures a critical reality: billions of people in the Global South still demand expanding access to air travel, consumer goods, and reliable electricity. India alone is positioned to drive an additional 8 million barrels per day of demand by mid-century. OPEC is effectively pivoting its strategy from Berlin to Bangalore, banking on sustained growth in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America to offset Western consumption trends.

Even as electric vehicle fleets grow, OPEC anticipates that internal combustion engines will still power roughly three-quarters of the world’s vehicles by 2050. Beyond personal transport, the cartel points to the voracious energy needs of shipping, aviation, data centers, and global manufacturing as structural pillars for oil. Simultaneously, the report suggests a cooling of U.S. shale production, which is expected to reach a plateau near 2030. While the group’s inherent bias toward oil growth remains clear, the continued rise in global consumption suggests that previous predictions of a looming demand collapse may have been premature.