Energy Aspects Cuts China’s November Diesel Export Forecast

The revised forecast, carried by Bloomberg, reflects the effect of heavy fuel shipments late in the summer on China’s available diesel stocks. Energy Aspects said refiners could increase exports if demand begins to ease in the middle of the month, a development it currently expects.

Traders and executives familiar with November export plans told Reuters earlier this week that shipments were on track to fall from August and September’s highs. Refiners had yet to finalize loading deals for the second half of November, but early estimates put monthly exports at about 800,000 tons. China shipped 1.33 million tons in August and 1.8 million tons in September.

GL Consulting, a think tank under Mysteel Group, said in a Thursday note that China was unlikely to halt diesel exports nationwide in November, despite commercial refined-product inventories falling to their lowest level in nearly seven years. The note addressed reports of cancelled cargoes and changes to shipment plans.

GL Consulting said better crude feedstock availability, flexibility in refinery operations and limited growth in domestic demand could ease supply constraints. Those factors could lift total refined-product exports in November from October, even if some diesel cargoes are cancelled or rescheduled.