Mark Skousen, the man who called the 1980 gold crash, turns cautious again

Skousen, a former CIA economist and current macro strategist at the Oxford Club, argues that the current economic landscape mirrors late 1970s volatility rather than a smooth recovery. While he acknowledges that gold could rally during a genuine monetary crisis, he maintains that the asset class is fundamentally disadvantaged by rising real interest rates—a force that works against any non-yielding investment. He remains particularly skeptical of the current bond market, opting instead for dividend-paying stocks like Main Street Capital to navigate what he describes as an era of permanent inflation.

Central to his outlook is the performance of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, whom Skousen believes is attempting to emulate the inflation-fighting legacy of Paul Volcker. While he gives Warsh high marks for monitoring the money supply, he doubts the Fed has the stomach for Volcker-era rate hikes, especially given the nation's nearly $2 trillion annual deficit. For investors, Skousen suggests a pivot away from the gold-bug mentality that defined his earlier career. Having shifted his own holdings toward royalty companies like Franco-Nevada, he advises a focus on revenue-based models over the metal itself, noting that while he still carries gold and silver in his pocket, he no longer views them as the primary solution for protecting long-term wealth.