Bolsonaro’s Exit Leaves U.S. Rare Earth Strategy in Flux

Justice Flávio Dino has ordered a federal investigation into the foreign financing of Bolsonaro’s campaign, specifically targeting links to the Rockbridge Network and potential overseas interference in Brazil’s mineral sector. With Bolsonaro’s Senate immunity set to expire in February, the legal pressure in Brasília is intensifying. The transition creates a precarious environment for American interests, particularly regarding the $750 million Department of War-backed offtake agreement with the Serra Verde mine.

USA Rare Earth acquired the site in September, acting independently of the Brazilian government. In response, President-elect Lula moved to implement legislation allowing a new oversight council to review changes of control over strategic mineral assets. This legislative maneuver highlights a widening rift within U.S. policy circles. National Security Council officials have advocated for a pragmatic partnership with Lula’s incoming administration to secure resource access, while State Department factions remain tethered to the now-deposed Bolsonaro administration. This discord effectively paralyzes Washington’s ability to negotiate a stable future for these critical supply chains.