The 4% spike reflects deep-seated anxiety over potential disruptions to Qatari and Emirati LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. With winter temperatures setting in, the market is bracing for a sustained supply crunch. Current data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows storage levels at 74.89%, lagging significantly behind the five-year seasonal average of 86%. The situation is compounded by QatarEnergy extending its force majeure on deliveries through the end of the year, further tightening the global market.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, warned that supply disruptions are now encroaching on the peak heating season. Beyond the Persian Gulf volatility, unplanned outages at Norwegian facilities have restricted regional output. Given that withdrawals from storage have already commenced across several nations, the prospect of replenishing reserves before spring remains bleak, keeping upward pressure on prices as the heating season intensifies.

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