Bitcoin’s maturing market signals shift toward tempered bull cycles

The shift away from the explosive cycles of previous years reflects the asset's growing institutional ownership and massive market capitalization. As Bitcoin scales, it requires significantly more capital to generate the same percentage moves that characterized its earlier, retail-dominated era. Ju notes that while the days of 80% drawdowns may be fading, the trade-off is a tempered price trajectory that demands a more nuanced approach to market expectations.

Evidence for this structural maturity appears in Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which has held above one throughout the current cycle. This suggests that the average holder has avoided the deep capitulation seen in previous bear markets. Furthermore, rising realized capitalization indicates that fresh capital continues to flow into the network, even as large, early-stage holders—often called "OG whales"—have largely ceased selling. These trends, combined with significant long positions built by derivatives traders near recent price floors, point toward a market supported by institutional demand rather than speculative frenzy. While Bitcoin recently climbed toward $87,000, Ju emphasizes that his forecast describes the overall scale of the cycle rather than a specific price target or an guarantee of a linear path upward.