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BlackRock Maintains Bullish Stance on U.S. Equities Amid AI Spending Surge

BlackRock has opted to keep U.S. equities at an overweight rating in its Q4 2026 outlook, betting that robust AI-driven earnings will continue to outweigh the cooling effects of rising capital costs. The firm warns that the massive scale of AI infrastructure deployment is now competing directly with sovereign borrowing for liquidity.

BlackRock Maintains Bullish Stance on U.S. Equities Amid AI Spending Surge

The asset manager estimates that U.S. financing demand could swell to over $7.5 trillion annually by 2030, a surge largely fueled by the construction of data centers and the broader AI buildout. This capital-intensive expansion has already shifted market dynamics, with AI-related issuers accounting for 14% of investment-grade bond issuance this year, up from just 1% over the past decade. BlackRock identifies these projects as central to an "AI scarcity" theme, where limited supplies of power, chips, and grid capacity act as the primary constraints on growth.

Despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, BlackRock remains confident in the resilience of corporate earnings. Rather than viewing the technology sector as a monolith, the firm is specifically targeting infrastructure providers that hold pricing power in supply-constrained areas. This strategy extends to emerging markets, which were recently upgraded to overweight due to attractive valuations and secondary opportunities within the global AI supply chain.

Fixed-income strategy has shifted toward caution, with the firm favoring short-term debt over long-duration government bonds. As global sovereign borrowing increases alongside private sector demand, BlackRock sees heightened interest-rate sensitivity in longer maturities. By focusing on shorter-duration assets and selective credit, the firm aims to capture higher risk-adjusted income while insulating portfolios from the volatility inherent in a high-rate environment.

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