VanEck signals potential Bitcoin accumulation phase by November

The asset manager’s latest research places the current market correction in its tenth month, following the peak recorded in October 2025. If the cycle adheres to previous historical trends, a turning point could materialize between September and November. However, the firm emphasizes that this timeline serves as a framework rather than a definitive price forecast, noting that the study relies on a limited set of overlapping market observations.

Institutional demand remains a critical variable, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs absorbing approximately $663 million in net inflows during the study period, helping to offset pressure from long-term holders. Data shows that coins held for over a year decreased by 356,534 BTC, leaving 11.84 million BTC in long-term wallets. While some of this movement may be attributed to investors securing assets following recent wallet security concerns, the sheer volume suggests significant profit-taking or redistribution.

VanEck expects a shallower trough in this cycle compared to previous bear markets, which saw drawdowns between 78% and 94%. Current figures show Bitcoin down roughly 49% from its record high. Despite these signals, the firm remains cautious: historical backtests indicate that while capitulation readings effectively identify late-cycle stress, they do not pinpoint the exact bottom, leaving the possibility of prolonged sideways trading before any durable recovery takes hold.