Hormuz Attacks Push Oil Toward $100 as Global Supply Lines Fracture

The volatility reflects a broader breakdown in global energy logistics. OPEC has trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast for the fourth consecutive month, citing the ongoing crisis, while the International Energy Agency warns of a deepening deficit. The agency projects a 4.3 million b/d drop in global supply, which would leave a 1.8 million b/d shortfall in the third quarter despite record-high prices forcing a significant decline in consumption.

Shipping routes are becoming increasingly precarious, forcing major players to adapt. Saudi Aramco is currently negotiating September allocations with Asian buyers on an individual basis as shipowners avoid the Red Sea and Hormuz. Meanwhile, Russian fuel exports continue to erode under the weight of drone strikes and internal refinery shutdowns, exemplified by the total closure of the 115,000 b/d Orsk refinery. As these geopolitical fractures widen, the energy sector faces a period of unprecedented uncertainty, with both supply volumes and transit security hanging in the balance.