Qatar, a critical global supplier, saw its export volumes stabilize by late June only to face an immediate reversal as hostilities flared. The resulting bottleneck forces a fierce scramble for spot cargoes between Asian importers and European utilities, the latter of which are currently struggling to secure reserves. With EU storage sites sitting at 53% capacity—well below the 68% five-year average—the race to reach a 75% target before the onset of winter is becoming increasingly precarious.
Commodity strategists at ING note that the situation is further exacerbated by extreme heatwaves across both continents, which are driving cooling demand to record levels. As Asian markets command higher premiums, European buyers face a twofold challenge: dwindling supply availability and the mounting cost of competing for remaining spot shipments. The disruption effectively shifts the global market into a high-volatility state, complicating the replenishment season just as the heating period approaches.

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