U.S. Nuclear Expansion Faces a Fuel Supply Bottleneck

The U.S. added just one nuclear power plant in the past decade, while many others are nearing decommissioning. The Trump administration has backed a revival of the sector, and pressure to add reliable, low-carbon electricity is growing as artificial intelligence drives up power demand, conflict in Iran keeps oil and gas markets volatile, and decarbonization deadlines approach. Countries are competing for limited supplies of enriched uranium.

The fuel chain is concentrated in a handful of countries. Only five plants worldwide have large-scale uranium conversion capacity, and Russia controls nearly half of global enrichment capacity. A National Interest article warned that cutting off Russian supply could leave Western reactors reliant on a single Chinese facility. The Stanford report said U.S. nuclear energy faces “fuel supply chain vulnerabilities, with tight uranium supplies, geopolitical risks, and rising costs.”

U.S. efforts to expand domestic production and conversion have gained support under both the Trump and Biden administrations. Last month, the National Enrichment Facility in Eunice, New Mexico, said its planned expansion was ahead of schedule and on budget. The facility currently converts enough uranium to cover about one-third of U.S. enriched-uranium demand. It plans to raise enrichment output by more than 50 percent, to 7 million separative work units (SWUs), as reactor demand grows.

But more enrichment capacity will not solve the problem if raw material is unavailable. The United States imports 93 percent of its raw uranium for nuclear fuel. Across Western markets, reactors need about 44,000 metric tons of uranium feedstock each year, while processing capacity in the United States, Canada and France is estimated at 34,000 metric tons when fully operational, according to the National Interest. The publication said Russian or Chinese producers have traditionally made up the gap, but reliance on them could pose a national security risk as trade routes tighten and political relationships become more contentious.