Middle East Supply Fears Propel Oil Price Rebound

The rally follows cautionary assessments from energy consultancies regarding the stability of Persian Gulf supply lines. Rystad Energy challenged the narrative of a swift return to pre-war export volumes, noting that fundamental points of contention between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved. The firm underscored that even a nominal agreement would be unlikely to normalize regional oil flows within the next twelve months.

Data from Vortexa further complicates the outlook, showing that October shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dipped to 17.1 million barrels per day, down from 18.9 million in September. This contraction contradicts earlier reports suggesting that exports had fully rebounded. Analysts at ING pointed out that the market continues to carry a significant risk premium, as conflicting signals regarding military escalation and diplomatic overtures prevent traders from establishing a clear, sustained direction for the commodity.