Dubai Oil Benchmark Shifts to Contango on Supply Surplus

This shift reflects the steady recovery of physical oil flows from the Gulf, where producers have ramped up shuttle-shipping and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The resulting abundance has eased concerns over supply constraints that dominated the market throughout the summer. As immediate availability grows, the premium of Oman crude over Dubai has retreated to its lowest point since late July.

Asian refiners, particularly in India, are capitalizing on this softening price environment. They are increasingly favoring Middle Eastern cargoes over Russian alternatives, which remain burdened by higher freight costs. While international futures fluctuate, the physical market is currently defined by these recovering volumes, which have now climbed toward pre-war levels for most regional producers.