Goldman Sachs Predicts $105 Brent Crude as Supply Buffers Erode

The upward adjustment follows a wider trend among financial institutions, with ANZ and UBS also raising their targets to $105 and $110 respectively. While oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recently returned to pre-war levels, analysts argue that these figures mask a fundamental weakening of market resilience. The structural buffers that once insulated prices from regional volatility are now largely exhausted.

Market consensus points to a diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the United States as the only viable catalyst for a sustained price decline. However, such a resolution appears unlikely in the near term. Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs noted that a rapid collapse in the current risk premium requires a sustainable diplomatic solution, a scenario that market participants currently view with skepticism. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching and both nations maintaining an ambiguous stance regarding future hostilities, the volatility surrounding energy prices persists despite ongoing talks between Iranian and Qatari officials.