Speaking at Russian Energy Week in Moscow, Novak confirmed that Russia aims to restore diesel shipments to pre-crisis levels, targeting between 3 million and 3.5 million tons per month by year-end. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov supported this outlook, noting that while export duties are absent, the resulting corporate earnings and foreign currency inflows will significantly impact the balance of payments. Donald Trump recently outlined a schedule for these shipments, starting with 300,000 tons immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and a subsequent 1 million tons.
These projections arrive against a backdrop of severe operational constraints. KSE data indicates that Russian refinery throughput hit a 20-year low of 3.7 million barrels per day in July, hampered by Ukrainian drone strikes that crippled three of the nation’s six largest facilities. While the government anticipates a return to historical export volumes—representing over 10% of the global market—the energy sector remains under intense pressure from ongoing military conflict, which recently left 600,000 people without power following strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv.

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