Stalled Middle Corridor Route Highlights Regional Geopolitical Hurdles

The proposed route is designed to provide Azerbaijan direct access to its Nakhchivan exclave and integrate the South Caucasus into a broader transit network between Central Asia and Europe. While the U.S. has appointed project managers and established funding, construction remains frozen. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently suggested that work on Armenian soil might only commence in 2027, highlighting the gap between diplomatic ambition and regional reality.

Security and Infrastructure Constraints

Tehran views the project as a direct threat to its influence, particularly because the route runs just meters from its northern border. With the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict, Iran sees the infrastructure as a potential strategic target, while simultaneously losing its role as the primary transit provider for Azerbaijani goods. Adding to the complexity is the status of Armenia's rail network, currently under a long-term concession to Russian Railways. Moscow has signaled that its USD 400 million investment in the system requires either substantial compensation or direct participation in the project. This places Washington in a difficult position: it must decide whether to negotiate with the Kremlin to clear the path for the corridor or risk the project’s long-term viability by excluding Russia, which maintains significant leverage over the local infrastructure.