Pashinyan’s Nuclear Shift Signals Armenia’s Precarious Geopolitical Pivot

The shift follows an autumn intimidation campaign from Russian leadership, including threats from Security Council member Dmitry Medvedev, who explicitly warned that Armenia risked transforming into a "new Ukraine." With approximately 5,000 troops stationed at Gyumri and deep control over Armenia’s energy infrastructure, Moscow retains significant leverage to destabilize the South Caucasus nation. The pressure appears to have worked; only days after Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev visited Yerevan to lobby for a VVER-1000 reactor, Pashinyan publicly questioned the viability of the American small modular reactors his government had previously favored.

This decision complicates Pashinyan's delicate balancing act as he pursues EU accession while managing a fragile peace process with Azerbaijan. While EU Commissioner Marta Kos recently praised Armenia’s progress on visa liberalization, the government remains locked in disputes with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union over trade barriers. Choosing Rosatom may placate Moscow for now, but it creates a strategic vacuum regarding the U.S.-backed TRIPP transit corridor. Russian officials have already attacked the project as a pretext for a Western military presence, leaving Washington to weigh its commitment to Armenian infrastructure as the country drifts back toward Russia’s gravitational pull.