Rising Freight Costs Stifle Venezuela’s Crude Export Momentum

Global trading houses like Vitol and Trafigura are pushing PDVSA for more favorable terms, citing eroded margins caused by expensive freight and rerouting issues. Despite this export contraction, the United States increased its intake to 629,000 bpd in September, up from 553,000 bpd in August. Conversely, European demand collapsed to 86,000 bpd, marking a sharp decline from the previous month’s 260,000 bpd.

While export logistics struggle, the industry’s long-term outlook remains ambitious. More than 250 companies recently visited Caracas to explore development opportunities, with Chevron planning a $7 billion investment aimed at doubling its local output to 600,000 bpd. Analysts at Rystad Energy project national production could climb to 1.8 million bpd by 2030, though the gap between ambition and infrastructure is wide. Venezuela operated only two active drilling rigs in August, but meeting those production targets will require scaling to nearly 80 rigs within five years.