Gold and Silver Edge Higher as Jobless Claims Temper Rate Expectations

Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 for the week, outperforming expectations of 201,000 and signaling that the labor market remains tighter than many analysts anticipated. This data prevents a straightforward dovish interpretation of Wednesday’s softer PCE inflation print. While the probability of an October rate increase sits at approximately 37%—down from 70% earlier this week—the long end of the yield curve remains under pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34%, while 30-year yields hit 5.68%, driven by energy costs, deficit concerns, and heavy debt issuance.

Geopolitical friction surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to complicate the inflation outlook. Brent crude traded near $100.10 a barrel, with WTI at $91.78, sustaining energy-driven price pressures despite a partial recovery in Gulf flows. Although gold typically benefits from geopolitical instability, the current market dynamic forces the metal to compete with a strengthening dollar and rising yields. Market participants are now looking toward the upcoming ISM manufacturing data and Friday’s September employment report for further clarity on whether the Federal Reserve can afford to pause its tightening cycle.