The $400 Billion AI Debt Bet Faces a Reality Check

The scale of borrowing is unprecedented, with AI-related debt now accounting for nearly 40% of all new corporate bond supply. Tech giants including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are projected to spend roughly $725 billion this year, largely diverting cash from traditional operations to fuel the buildout. Thornton compares this trend to the historical "skyscraper curse," where cheap money drives massive, cycle-topping projects that eventually succumb to market corrections.

Signs of strain are already emerging in the broader economy. While U.S. factory output dipped in August, utility production rose as data centers placed heavy demands on power grids. Thornton anticipates that the financial burden of these energy-intensive facilities will ultimately shift from private corporations to taxpayers and utility customers. Beyond the tech sector, he warns that the current reliance on cheap capital leaves the entire landscape of dollar-denominated assets vulnerable to a severe future reckoning.