Gold and Silver Defy Treasury Yields as Oil Prices Retreat

The tug of war between energy prices and interest rate expectations continues to dictate market sentiment. Following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, futures markets are now pricing in a 58% probability of a follow-up hike in October. This hawkish environment pushed the 10-year Treasury yield back to 5.00%, while the two-year yield hit its highest intraday level since July 2024.

Energy markets provided the primary offset to this rate pressure. Brent crude settled at $104.87 a barrel and WTI at $100.30, following reports that Iran was urged to temper Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. While the easing of the geopolitical crude premium helped gold test the $4,400 mark, analysts suggest the metal requires a sustained break through $4,396.15 to confirm a technical breakout. For silver, the focus remains on clearing the $66.70 resistance level to maintain current bullish momentum, even as broader equity markets struggled to find a consistent direction.