VanEck signals market capitulation, but warns against quick Bitcoin rebound

The asset manager’s proprietary indicators track a range of metrics including price drawdowns, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders sitting on unrealized losses. While all 12 signals triggered at various points over the past three months, eight remained active in mid-August. VanEck notes that these clusters historically do not guarantee immediate outsized returns; in fact, average gains over the subsequent 90 and 180 days have often trailed Bitcoin’s general historical performance.

VanEck anticipates the current accumulation phase may span from September to November, aligning with the typical 11-to-13-month duration of past bear cycles. Despite the severity of the drop, the firm suggests this decline may be shallower than historical crashes, bolstered by the presence of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a more institutionalized investor base. Currently, the market faces headwinds from weak spot demand and rising U.S. bond yields, even as U.S.-listed Bitcoin funds have begun to see a reversal of previous net outflows.

Miner distress remains a focal point of the report, with daily network revenue down 46% year-over-year. A decline in mining difficulty—the steepest since China’s 2021 ban—highlights the pressure on operators to maintain profitability amid rising costs. Simultaneously, data shows a reduction in long-term supply, with coins untouched for over a year decreasing by more than 350,000 BTC, though the firm cautions that some of this activity may reflect internal security transfers rather than outright selling.