Gold outlook hinges on Fed policy and geopolitical instability

The latest pulse check from the LBMA reveals a significant realignment of expectations to match the market reality of the year’s first seven months, which averaged $4,595.75 per ounce. While the collective forecast for the full-year average sits at $4,604, individual projections vary wildly, reflecting a broader climate of uncertainty. The spread between the most bearish and bullish targets has widened by 103% compared to last year, with forecasts ranging from $3,450 to $7,150 per ounce.

Analysts continue to monitor the same core drivers—Middle Eastern instability, U.S. inflation, and central bank gold accumulation—but the focus has shifted toward the Fed under Kevin Warsh’s new leadership. Julia Du of ICBC Standard Bank remains the most optimistic, betting on safe-haven demand and institutional portfolio shifts to push prices toward $7,150. Conversely, Robin Bhar of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting maintains a more cautious outlook, anticipating an average of $4,000 while acknowledging that ongoing political friction acts as a structural floor for the metal.