Iraq’s Fragile Pipeline Deal With Turkey

The agreement, signed on 1 August between Turkish state firm BOTAS and Iraqi entities SOMO and the North Oil Company, targets a transit volume of 750,000 barrels per day. This corridor is critical for Iraq, which relies on oil for over 90% of its budget. With the Strait of Hormuz facing potential blockades, the Ceyhan export route offers a vital bypass for Baghdad to reach European and American markets, serving as an alternative to Russian and Black Sea crude.

However, the stability of this arrangement is questionable. The deal follows a two-and-a-half-year shutdown prompted by an ICC arbitration ruling, which ordered Turkey to pay $1.5 billion for allowing independent oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Ankara is reportedly seeking to offset this fine through new joint ventures in Iraq’s energy sector. If these demands are not met, experts suggest Turkey may abandon the agreement before the year expires. The underlying conflict remains the FGI’s firm control over Kurdish resources, a policy designed to prevent the region from leveraging energy independence to pursue political sovereignty—a goal that historically invited intervention from Baghdad, Iran, and Turkey.