Russian Seaborne Crude Exports Hit Three-Month Low

Daily shipments fell from 3.5 million barrels the previous week, according to vessel-tracking data through August 9. This contraction coincides with a July production increase of 100,000 barrels per day, as facilities utilized a brief lull in Ukrainian drone activity to complete essential maintenance. Consequently, more crude remained within the country for refining rather than entering the global tanker market.

Logistical constraints have compounded these processing shifts. Novorossiysk is currently operating at half its peak loading capacity following strikes on nearby tankers, while traffic at the Baltic terminal of Ust-Luga has halved over the past fortnight. With Ukraine resuming strikes on five refineries in early August, the industry faces a volatile outlook; while outages typically force crude into export channels, the current lack of available tankers and restricted port capacity makes finding alternative outlets increasingly difficult. Despite these weekly fluctuations, year-to-date seaborne flows remain 280,000 barrels per day higher than the 2023 average.