Citi Adjusts Brent Forecast as Strait of Hormuz Stays Volatile

The bank maintains its fourth-quarter projection at $70 per barrel, anticipating a long-term average of $65 by 2027. This latest adjustment signals a retreat from Citi’s previous bearish stance held in July, when analysts predicted a decline toward $60 as regional tensions cooled. Reality has diverged sharply from those projections, as commercial shipping through the waterway remains constrained and regional production levels stay suppressed.

Brent futures climbed to $83.11 per barrel on Friday, reflecting market anxiety over the lack of a durable agreement. While Citi eyes a potential price drop later this year, Goldman Sachs offers a more cautious outlook, warning that Brent could hold between $80 and $90 until either a definitive deal is struck or the conflict escalates further. Should the Strait of Hormuz face a prolonged closure, Goldman analysts suggest prices could spike toward $120 per barrel, highlighting the fragility of current supply chains.