Natixis expects Fed to hold rates through 2026 despite tariff risks

Recent labor and inflation metrics have shifted the outlook toward a more dovish stance. June payrolls registered a gain of 57,000, significantly lower than the 164,000 average seen in the preceding three months. Analysts highlighted a cooling trend in core CPI, suggesting the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator could fall below the 2% target. Despite this, internal divisions persist; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is expected to dissent in favor of a hike, potentially joined by Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari.

Fed Chair Warsh has signaled a willingness to treat near-term inflationary pressure as temporary, provided it does not become persistently elevated. Natixis expects the FOMC statement to remain largely unchanged, focusing on cyclical forces rather than exogenous shocks. However, the stability of this outlook is contingent on energy prices and trade policy. Should the recent ceasefire agreement with Iran falter or new tariffs be implemented, the Fed may be forced to abandon its extended pause to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility.