Brent Crude Hits $100 as Red Sea Conflict Disrupts Global Supply

Traders are aggressively pricing in prolonged supply disruptions as the market abandons hope for a swift geopolitical cooling. The rally, which has seen Brent climb roughly 20% in two weeks, is no longer tethered solely to the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has metastasized; Kazakhstan is curbing production following drone strikes on Black Sea tanker terminals, while Indian refiners have halted loadings of Iraqi crude.

These physical constraints are hitting a market already stripped of its safety nets. Global strategic reserves have been drained by millions of barrels, and China is increasingly relying on domestic stockpiles rather than fresh imports. With the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint now under threat alongside Hormuz, the fragile buffer that sustained oil markets earlier this year has evaporated. The escalation erases the optimism once fueled by U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts, leaving the global energy supply chain under simultaneous pressure from multiple, intensifying fronts.