Gold Stalls as Rising Oil Prices and Fed Rate Outlook Weigh on Metals

Spot gold traded lower at $4,012.00 an ounce, failing to clear the $4,040 threshold as traders recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Recent economic indicators, including strong retail sales and a rebound in Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data, have tempered earlier hopes for a definitive policy pivot. While the market anticipates a hold at the July 29 meeting, the probability of a rate hike later this year remains priced into the curve.

Silver decoupled from gold’s trend, rebounding 1.62% to $56.73 as it continues to act as a high-beta proxy for industrial sentiment. However, both metals remain under technical pressure. Gold bears retain a near-term advantage while prices linger below the $4,023.35 pivot, and silver remains trapped below its critical $58.53 resistance level. With shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively stalled following U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites and subsequent regional retaliation, traders are closely monitoring Fed communication and energy markets for further volatility.