The CFTC inquiry centers on trades made within Kalshi’s “mentions” markets, where participants bet on the content of presidential speeches. Investigators identified bets tied to several high-profile events, including the State of the Union address, a December prime-time speech, and a March Medal of Honor ceremony. Kalshi flagged the activity as suspicious, freezing the majority of the profits before referring the case to federal regulators.
While federal prosecutors have declined to pursue criminal charges, the CFTC continues to examine whether the trades constitute an misuse of nonpublic information. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the investigation, noting that President Trump described the situation as a “disgrace.” Perez, who has managed teleprompter duties since the 2016 campaign, is currently cooperating with the inquiry. The case highlights growing concerns over the intersection of political discourse and prediction markets, particularly as firms like Trump Media begin monetizing real-time access to executive statements for financial institutions.

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