Early Wednesday, the September Brent contract surged to $85.79 per barrel, commanding an $8 premium over contracts slated for delivery six months out. This structural reversal highlights urgent concerns regarding prompt supply, with the first-month contract reaching its highest premium over the six-month benchmark since June 10. The move marks a sudden end to the brief period of market calm that followed the now-defunct memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran.
Just weeks ago, the market had slipped into contango as hopes for diplomatic progress and the reopening of key shipping lanes eased supply fears. That optimism evaporated this weekend following reports of strikes against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent U.S. military retaliation against Iranian targets. With the U.S. naval blockade reinstated, the pressure on Middle Eastern benchmarks—including Dubai, Murban, and Oman futures—has intensified, forcing a rapid recalibration of energy prices as traders brace for sustained disruption.
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