Gold faces Q2 correction, but central bank appetite offers support

The sharp decline, which saw gold drop $1,500 from its January intraday high, marks a significant departure from the steady gains observed in the first quarter. Analysts Sam Whitehead, Benjamin Jones, and David Scales attribute the retreat to a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh. With inflation hitting 4.1% in May, markets have shifted from anticipating rate cuts to pricing in a 67% probability of a hike by September. This shift increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while a strengthening US dollar further compounds the pressure for international buyers.

Despite these headwinds, the long-term outlook remains anchored by structural demand. According to the World Gold Council, a record 45% of central bankers intend to increase their gold reserves over the next year. This institutional buying, driven by concerns over geopolitical volatility and currency devaluation, acts as a hedge against the current market malaise. While retail investment demand remains sensitive to price momentum, the fundamental role of gold as a portfolio diversifier remains intact. Whether the metal stabilizes depends on the Fed's success in curbing sticky inflation and the trajectory of the dollar in the coming months.